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Malting Barley 2010 And What's Next?

EXPECT THE UNEXPECTED –
During the past weeks and days one could read in a number of publications by agricultural ministries and other associations representing our cultural economy, that although the output of malting barley crop in 2010 compared to the previous year was lower, the situation as a whole was hardly considered alarming. The malthouses represented in the Deutscher Mälzerbund, the association of German malsters, however, evaluate the present situation differently, because the actual figures are considered rather alarming.

Analyzing the output of brewing barley reaped up to today, we find that hidden sprouting will bring about problems not to be neglected. In some barley lots sprouting up to 20 % has been found. Continuous rain during harvesting brought about increasing mildew attacks. Consequently an increasing amount of mycotoxin cannot be excluded. As in the years 2007/2008 the brewing industry will possibly be confronted with gushing problems also in 2010/2011. The brewing wheat delivered up to this day shows significant quality deficiencies in particular.

In 2010 the acreage of summer barley was reduced by another 80,000 hectares compared to the year before. Only 353,000 hectares were cultivated with summer barley. For 2010 – at the latest for the crop of 2011 – a lack of quality summer brewing barley is imminent. The chart shows the continuing decrease of summer barley acreage during the last 20 years.


(click to enlarge)

Several factors are responsible for the reduction of brewing malt acreage by 65% since 1990 leading to a historical low this year. Based on the fact that the German malting industry has a utilization of capacity of 80% - one million tons of summer brewing barley being supplied – we must expect an import demand of 800,000 to 900,000 tons of brewing barley. How this demand can be covered is the question which needs to be answered.

It is highly doubtful that France or Denmark is capable of covering this demand as they have done in the past few years. Up to now we have no reliable figures concerning the harvest in Denmark. It is said, however, that there are considerable deficiencies of quality. This leads to further reduction of the available amount of brewing barley. In France the crop was efficient, but there also we find the reduction of acreage and consequently a smaller output of brewing barley. Moreover, first samples show fungal attacks.

Due to harvest problems, Eastern Europe, by which we mean Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Romania, will not serve as barley suppliers in this campaign.

Also in the three remaining barley producing countries, France, Denmark, and Great Britain, the acreage has been reduced considerably within the last years. (statistics, estimated figures for 2010)


(click to enlarge)

In the European Union more than 9.2 million tons of summer brewing barley were produced in 2009. In 2010 the supply amounted to 6 million tons only. This corresponds to a loss of 45%. For the time being, barley of former crops is available to cover a supply shortfall.

Nevertheless, we might have to face a bottleneck as we don’t know yet how much of the barley crop can be processed as brewing barley. By 2011’s crop at the latest, no more reserves will be available. This leads to a highly precarious situation. Sufficient supply cannot be guaranteed.
Already today we can see that concessions on the malt quality will have to be made to avoid a further increase of deficiency. This was already the remedy for malts of the 2006 and 2007 crops.
By far, however, this will not do. The cultivation of bio energy is sponsored by the German government (and other EU governments too) and therefore economically more attractive. If we don’t succeed in making the cultivation of grain palatable, which can only be achieved by reasonable prices, very soon there will be no cultivation of barley anymore and we will be forced to say good-bye to the processing of summer brewing barley and will at best have to proceed winter barley instead.

If we don’t offer an attractive price for the brewing malt crop of 2011 and possibly also for 2012, the farmers will not plan the cultivation of brewing barley anymore. The precondition for this procedure is corresponding treaties between the brewery and the malthouse.

If we don’t finally understand that, in contrast to us brewers and maltsters, the farmers have alternatives to the cultivation of brewing barley which are considerably more profitable the barley culture could be damaged.

We shall get more and more problems achieving sufficient supplies in the coming years, if we seriously consider the use of winter brewing barley only “in distress”.

As far as the supply of agricultural commodities is concerned, it is high time that we come to thinking in longer terms and to acting correspondingly. Otherwise we will be forced to give up the cultivation of brewing barley in Germany.

It’s up to us – let’s make the best of it!

written by Deutscher Mälzerbund e.V. on 22.09.2010 um 13:46.

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