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Grainexx Market Report 05/2012

31.01.12 - At the World Economic Forum in Davos Germany once again got numerous criticism of the handling of the EU crisis. It occurred the impression of a cry for help for a financial
savor of the EU but Mrs Merkel seems to be here remarkably unimpressed. Equally unimpressed is the market by the latest downgrade of the rating agency Fitch for Slovenia, Belgium, Cypres and the major player Spain and Italy.
European banks stop the payments and the export financing of shipments to Iran resulting in 10 cargoes with grain/oilseeds, which are unable to discharge and are not yet paid.
The EU and the US are stopping for several months the oil imports from Iran. This was countered with the threat of an export ban for 15 years, this pushed the oil prices.

Grainexx Market Report 04/2012

25.01.12 - The forecasts of the International Monetary Fund for the global economy 2012 are slightly negative. For this actual year the experts are forecasting an economic growth of only 3,3% globally (last estimate was still at 4,0%). For the Euro-Zone the IMF is forecasting a slight recession of -0,5%.
So far for the prognosis: The actual economic data prove to be quite positive: There is solid economic growth still in China, and the stock markets were showing a quite positive development in the last 10 days. The Euro firmed considerably against the dollar (by 2,5 cent), and is currently trading around the 1,30 level.

Grainexx Market Report 03/2012

16.01.12 - As we said in our short version report of last week there are some important factors to comment on. The US rating agency S&P has decreased considerably the rating of a lot of European countries. Especially remarkable is the loss of the triple A rating in France and Austria. Even more important however is the fact that they have put basically all countries on a negative outlook. Except for the Euro exchange rate, the reactions on the markets were quite calm on that one. It is very good to note that ECB officials have stated that the Central Bank will provide the financial markets with enough liquidity in order to cope with the current situation… But still nervousness continues.

Grainexx Market Report 02/2012

12.01.12 - Short version of our Report today... important information/market influences still ahead of us. We want to be very brief today as we believe that the decisive part is yet to come this week with today´s USDA report and the quota on TRQ barley and wheat imports into the EU. Egypt hast stated buying again, the usual "package" of 240.000 tons,about 15.- USD/to higher than the last purchases. Interesting to note especially Argentina being out-priced! Private forecasters continue to lower South American soybeans and wheat forecasts due to continuous dry conditions. Further good performance of the futures markets. Strong and solid gains in the stock markets recently as well.

Grainexx Market Report 01/2012

03.01.12 - We would like to wish you a Happy New Year 2012, all the best to you, very good health and a lot of success!
If we would only have a good crystal ball! – However, we try to imagine that we have one, but please take that only as an attempt!

Grainexx Market Report 51/2011

19.12.11 - Once again it was a quite fatal week for the stock exchanges as well as for the financial markets in general. The rating agencies continue their tricky and dirty play against some selected countries or the Euro zone as a whole. Even the safe haven gold lost 9%, the Euro came under huge pressure and was end of last week hitting an 11-months low trading at below 1,30. Stock markets in general were basically the whole week in the red zone.
This morning only a slight recovery of the stock markets by about 1%, the dollar trading around the 1,30 level, but quite some activity on the overnight exchanges in Chicago, and also a firmer tendency of about 3 Euro/ton on the MATIF wheat contract.

Grainexx Market Report 50/2011

12.12.11 - You can´t unscramble scrambled eggs”
We really like that American saying, especially in view of the Euro crises…

It was exactly the main focus on last week´s EU summit, everybody sitting in the same boat, but with different speeds. The final result was a 26:1 defeat of the British government.
“Mercozy“ call for fiscal stability and giving up national rights to the EU commission.

Financial markets have reacted quite relaxed to the decisions of the EU summit. Now people would like to see action after we have only heard late night nice words. Stock markets were rising in the United States as well as in Europe, and the dollar/Euro was quite stable.

Grainexx Market Report 49/2011

07.12.11 - Further we see Europe's debt crisis as the most important manipulator of all raw materials. Once again we have seen through this week's threat of a downgrade of bank subordinated debt of 87 banks from 15 different EU countries on what we are. Also the approaches of the governments like triple A bond that would provide funding solely on the basis of triple A rated states, would not provide an quick solution to the crisis. The awareness to find a solution with a quick shot evaporates more and more. The consolidated government in Belgium by Di Rupo will organize the country with new structural reforms on the labor- and pension market and various saving plans. The central bank has provided the EU countries with sufficient U.S. dollar liquidity. However, also the euro rescue package with a potential of 750 billion €, which serve states in crisis, cannot protect us from being in deep water.

Grainexx Market Report 48/2011

29.11.11 - Logistical challenges – concerns about barley quality – the European markets in rough sea
- not a real quiet winter time.
The outlook is grim, the financial markets are talking about EU melt-down, some people talk about a second US recession at a time of already unacceptably high unemployment and zero interest rates, and China´s growth and economic data are beginning to grow into serious concern

Grainexx Market Report 47/2011

21.11.11 - New governments in Greece, Italy and Spain – but uncertainty continues…
Financial markets continue to be depressed.
Also, the grain futures market in Chicago and Paris did not show a clear direction during last week. However, it has to be noted that especially the last two days and also this morning both futures markets continued at a down-trend. Many analysts believe that the market will continue side-ways to further lower until the end of this calendar year. The next resistance level for the MATIF wheat January contract will be 175,- EUR/ton (presently market is trading around 180,- EUR/ton). We also believe that a further correction for CBOT wheat, soy bean and corn contracts can happen until we have reached the bottom.

Grainexx Market Report 46/2011

14.11.11 - Three important items we want to cover in this report.

Reforms in Rome: Luckily the Italian parliament has passed the stability law, and hopefully Mr. Monti will be the new PM and lead a strong majority government.

New cabinet in Athens: Finally they agreed!! New PM Papademos definitely an expert in finance, and another good news is that the old finance minister is also the new one. Both are definitely committed to the Euro zone.

Anger in Paris: What was behind the “funny” story of the S&P rating agency?? Is France at risk of losing its AAA status?!

Again it was a very turbulent week with roller coaster stock markets. By the end of last week things calmed down a little bit and markets closed unchanged.

Grainexx Market Report 45/2011

08.11.11 - Really no news this week. There will be 3 important subjects to be further discussed in next week´s report:

1. The USDA Report tomorrow. Will it show a much lower corn figure or not?
2. The BRAU Beviale in Nuremberg. What will be the decisions on handling critical malting barley quality? What will be the brewers´ decision regarding further purchases?
3. What will be the news from the financial markets? How will a new Greek government look like? Will Italy find a way out of the crisis?

Grainexx Market Report 44/2011

03.11.11 - We wrote in our last market report that we hope that the financial markets will take some break in order to reorganize and settle down.
Well, with a possible referendum in Greece, with an uncertainty of the acting government and with another crisis summit as well as the ongoing G-20 meeting in France, there is everything else but quiet times to settle down. Stock markets are playing roller coaster again, and grain markets are affected by the economic crisis as well.
It is the same scenario since months: At the beginning of the week, you don´t know where the markets and the economy stand at the end of the week.

Grainexx Market Report 43/2011

27.10.11 - What an exciting week again....... but not for grains in general and even less malting barley!

Dear Sirs!
Two summits, lot's of talks, uncertainty, worries and finally, as expected:
- haircut of 50% for Greece
- leverage to close to one trillion EUR (1.000.000.000.000.-EUR, so many zeros..)
- capital increase of Europe's most important banks
Berlusconi and Cameron being the bad guys of the week, while "young daddy" Sarko and Angie were playing the "real" Europeans.
Interesting and expensive theatre.
However, now hopefully we get at least some months of relief and gaining back confidence in the financial markets, finding the time to really concentrate on macro reforms.

Grainexx Market Report 41/2011

12.10.11 - Are the Slovaks closing the “umbrella”? – USDA report as a main focus today

Dear Sirs,
it could have been so nice and easy…
then Slovakia said no yesterday to the EU aid package. But markets seem to be not really impressed and quite confident that a second vote will go through.
Euro showing a strong performance, trading between 1,3750 and 1,38.
And some reason, economic figures for the EU and the US were not as bad as expected.

Grainexx Market Report 40/2011

05.10.11 - Good old Archimedes…Is that the leverage effect?
Dear Sirs,
the same old story all over again:
Greece: higher than expected deficit, Troika decision postponed – will they go bankrupt second half October?
Italy: downgraded by the rating agencies yesterday.
Stock exchanges recovering from yesterday´s slump. Euro fairly better at 1,3350 after trading as low as 1,3150 early this week.
The recession story continues, at least the fear that it will happen.
Still uncertainty about the future of the Euro zone…..
It is everything else but fun these days!

Grainexx Market Report 39/2011

30.09.11 - The “hangover” situation continues. Greece is anxiously awaiting the “Troika” decision for the next 8 billion Euros. Decision is postponed and the reform path is questioned.
Italy was downgraded by the rating agencies due to political instability (despite the reform laws) – Berlusconi´s girlfriends might think differently about it!!!

Grainexx Market Report 38/2011

22.09.11 - The “hangover” situation continues. Greece is anxiously awaiting the “Troika” decision for the next 8 billion Euros. Decision is postponed and the reform path is questioned.
Italy was downgraded by the rating agencies due to political instability (despite the reform laws) – Berlusconi´s girlfriends might think differently about it!!!

Grainexx Market Report 37/2011

14.09.11 - Financial markets are in a bad mood. Nobody seems to know how the situation will continue with Greece and the EURO-Zone as a whole. No talks about the deficit in the US anymore, only how to accelerate or better to say maintain a growth rate.
What will happen to the banking sector?? –german top bank’s shares lost about 25% in the last days,rating agency’s go against leading French banks not to talk about Bank of America… On can’t blame anybody ,if in these crises mood and depression there is more talks than action and nobody knows what the final outcome will be….
Strategic decision might be put on hold as well as reliable forecasts on consumer spending.

Grainexx Market Report 36/2011

06.09.11 - The world financial markets are in turmoil. Once again the Greek situation and their inability or unwillingness to reduce their spending and debts weigh heavily on the markets. Italy seems to become more of an issue. For Portugal and Spain there is presently no more room in the headlines and analysis comments.
Or are they getting better and it is simply ignored!?

Grainexx Market Report 35/2011

02.09.11 - The “yo-yo” effect on the international markets continues. The stock markets remain very volatile, to say the least.
Actual economic figures show a slow-down in growth, but no real sign of a recession. Politicians are getting more and more aware of the fact that maybe accompanying measures are required.

Grainexx Market Report 34/2011

25.08.11 - The big question these days is: “Right or wrong? Real or false?”
The financial markets calmed down, at least a little bit. Stock markets are showing a slight recovery and we are having a quite stable Euro/USD relation around 1,44/1,4450. But still, there are a lot of fears of an upcoming recession and world-wide economic crisis around. The main question : is that coming really or is it overdone as a reaction. Nobody really knows and the uncertainty continues.

Grainexx Market Report 33/2011

18.08.11 - We were all thinking that we get a very early harvest after the drought in the main areas in April, May, and finally it turns out that this harvest is one the longest we have seen in the past ten years. When we said about a month ago we need one week more in order to have a clear picture on how grain quantities and qualities are divided in Europe, we have to state today that the market still has no clear picture about that and the uncertainty continues.

Grainexx Market Report 32/2011

08.08.11 - We are living again in exciting times!!!
The financial markets are dominating everything these days again. After a lot of people had thought that with the last EU summit regarding the stabilization fund and the last minute agreement between the Congress and the President in the United States some calmer waters had been reached, we were taught something different in the last ten days. The Euro stocks lost about the size of the GDP of Austria, the US dollar was traded in big volatility between 1,40 and 1,44 against the Euro. All stock markets were down, gold went sharply up from one new record to another (see graph), and you have the impression that bankers, politicians and financial institutions do not know what to think about this new crisis, and even worth, they don´t know how to handle that (the picture of the Wall Street guy might be a good example on how the majority of the people are feeling!). Due to these turmoils in the financial markets, agricultural futures were hammered down as well trading continuously lower. This morning CBOT was down 15 to 20 cent/bushel, both in corn and in wheat, and we saw MATIF wheat loosing another 5 Euro/ton.

Grainexx Market Report 31/2011

01.08.11 - Again not very much to say about the markets in the last week.
However, we want to point out some highlights both on the international grain front as well as in the European malting barley markets:

Grainexx Market Report 30/2011

26.07.11 - Not much to say about these markets in the last couple of days. They are quite ill-defined.
On the international front the weather in big parts of the United States is still very very hot and dry, only interrupted by a few violent thunder storms. This is during that period especially critical for corn, but also spring wheat yields could be largely affected. The forecast stays quite dry for the rest of this week. We are quite sure that the USDA will correct its yields down in the next report, failing their projected ending stocks! Also the crop rating of spring wheat and corn will be adjusted to the downside.

Grainexx Market Report 28/2011

13.07.11 - We come a little bit earlier this week with our market report because we wanted to be more actual in view of the latest USDA World Supply and Demand Report as well as the actual harvest progress in Germany and in France. Grain markets in Chicago and in Paris were down beginning of this week, but got a full recovery yesterday and also during the course of this morning.

Yesterday´s USDA report did not bring a lot of surprises, but in comparison with the last two reports it is starting to get more realistic. The future markets´ reaction on this report was quite clear: Quite neutral to slightly bullish, but definitely, if you look deeper into that, not bearish!

Grainexx Market Report 27/2011

08.07.11 - Ups and downs in the market continue, but not to the same extent like in the previous week. Chicago and MATIF wheat were up by about 5 Euros every day on Monday, Tuesday, and then immediately went down to the same extent the last two days, and today it seems that we are closing slightly up.

Grainexx Market Report 26/2011

01.07.11 - We have said earlier in the year that the only thing which is sure is volatility, but we were absolutely not sure to which extent. And we are absolutely surprised about the tremendously huge price swings of the last three weeks. It is acceptable to believe that the huge price increase of the month of May in all grain markets, and especially in malting barley, was exaggerated. At that time there was a big panic about very bad malting barley crops in Europe, and the market got additional fire from the leading commodity markets like wheat and corn. But now one has to see that the big down-move is also absolutely exaggerated and in no way fundamentally justified.

Grainexx Market Report 24/2011

17.06.11 - If people are calling this market a roller coaster ride, then I have to say, it´s a very tough one. Every time in the last months we have been in 4 weeks of a one-way street in the market and were trading both ends always on the very extreme sides.

After going up by Euro 60,- a ton in the second half of May, the malting barley market has now completely lost all these gains and is back to levels we had in the middle of May.
One might well consider the up-move in prices earlier as too much exaggerated, but then one has to be fair and say that this correction might also be overdone.

Malting Barley 2010 And What's Next?

22.09.10 - EXPECT THE UNEXPECTED –
During the past weeks and days one could read in a number of publications by agricultural ministries and other associations representing our cultural economy, that although the output of malting barley crop in 2010 compared to the previous year was lower, the situation as a whole was hardly considered alarming. The malthouses represented in the Deutscher Mälzerbund, the association of German malsters, however, evaluate the present situation differently, because the actual figures are considered rather alarming.

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